It is easier for the Soyuz to fly through the eye of a needle than to calmly talk on the Internet about the state of affairs in Russian cosmonautics. The reason is simple: too many people succumb to the temptation of black-and-white thinking, and extreme positions clash in discussions. Some believe that NASA is lost without Russian engines and seats on manned spacecraft, others are sure that Roscosmos has long been eating up the last rocket under the bridge without salt. The reality is somewhere between these extremes, but discussions usually devolve into swearing instead of seeking the truth. Understanding these risks, we will still try to talk briefly about the state of the Russian cosmonautics.
Number of starts
For thirteen years in a row, Russia has been the leader in the number of space launches. But in 2016, we were overtaken by the United States and, for the first time, China. In 2017, one private company, SpaceX, has a chance to overtake Russia in the number of launches. Our leadership in this parameter was a source of pride, and its loss was a cause for disappointment. How justified is it?
Number of launches by country since 2004 The large number of Russian launches in recent years has several reasons. Firstly, applied satellite constellations were deployed - GLONASS for navigation, Express, Yamal for communications, Resurs for remote sensing of the Earth, military satellites. Secondly, foreign spacecraft were actively launched under commercial contracts.
When Russian launch vehicles entered the world market in the 90s, they turned out to be cheap and were in great demand.
A specially created company, ILS, offered favorable prices for Protons, and since 1996, 98 launches have been made to the most commercially in demand geostationary orbit. Thirdly, according to the manned program, 4 Soyuz with astronauts and 4–5 Progress cargo spacecraft are launched every year, which is already at least 8 launches per year.
Now GLONASS is deployed and requires fewer launches to maintain the constellation. The situation with commercial contracts has worsened: the private company SpaceX has entered the launch services market, competing with ILS prices. In 2016, the Proton accident did not result in loss of payload, the satellite was successfully launched into the target orbit, but the investigation into the accident overlapped with the discovery of incorrect solder in the engines, and as a result, Proton did not fly for almost a year. Even in the manned program, one Progress cargo cargo was removed, which is why the Russian ISS crew had to be reduced from 3 people to 2.
Paradoxically, the reduction in launches is also a consequence of one good reason. In the 1980s, the USSR carried out hundreds of launches a year in the region, but its Strela communications satellites could only operate in orbit for six months, and Zenit reconnaissance satellites only for two weeks.
When the active lifespan of satellites is so short, it negates the effect of a large number of launches. Now our satellites have begun to operate in orbit much longer, so we need to launch new ones to replace them less often.
Also, in parallel, the process of replacing launch vehicles is underway. The old Cosmos and Cyclone aircraft no longer fly, and the converted Dnepr aircraft are also gradually ending their careers. And if the new lightweight Soyuz-2.1v, which first flew at the end of 2013, took off for the third time in June 2017, then the Angara is doing less successfully. After two test launches in 2014, it has yet to begin flying with real satellites. The point is not only in eliminating the inevitable comments after the first - albeit successful - launches. The Khrunichev Center, where the Angara is produced, is moving missile production to Omsk and reducing space in Moscow by 80%. Against the background of these disturbances, the delay in serial production is, alas, natural.
Accident rate
It is a common belief that our missiles are constantly falling. But statistics do not confirm this. If you look at the relative accident rate (the number of accidents divided by the number of rockets), you can see that the performance of the Russian cosmonautics is at a level comparable to other countries.
Relative accident rate of the leading space powers since 2004, loss of payload 1 point, accident without loss of payload - 0.5 points Apart from the European Space Agency, which has an almost zero accident rate (the only incident in 2014 was related to the abnormal operation of the Russian Fregat unit - the satellites were launched into an undesignated orbit, but are being successfully operated), Russia, the USA and China show approximately the same accident rate.
Why is the myth about our constantly falling missiles so tenacious?
Firstly, the work of the media is structured in such a way that a successful launch takes place with minimal coverage, but an accident attracts much more attention. Secondly, astronautics is perceived as an integral part of the country’s prestige, so there are forces that in every possible way pick up news about accidents in order to use them to prove that “everything is bad in the country.” There is a whole list of memes that I regularly get for any reason and personally I have already become obsessed with. Thirdly, human psychology itself tends to black-and-white thinking, and rational analysis requires intellectual effort. And fourthly, despite the really good PR efforts of Roscosmos, a lot of things could have been done better.
PR
You can hear the opinion that Roscosmos is doing well, but it doesn’t know how to PR. This is not entirely true - the PR activity of Roscosmos is quite noticeable. The agency has actively maintained pages in social networks. Astronauts participate in broadcasts, maintain their own pages, and, for example, on Instagram, photos from orbit very popular. In 2016, great effort was put into the slogan “Raise your head!”
Many good words can be said about Roscosmos TV. They produce two weekly programs on YouTube (until recently one was broadcast on Rossiya 24), and make good films. Thanks to them, we can learn in detail about how astronauts train.
They also created a good video encyclopedia “Cosmonauts” and managed to produce some very nice “what if” videos on astronomy.
At the same time, there is a feeling that the work lacks resources and consistency. For example, the launch of a manned spacecraft is an important and exciting event. But there is no uniform and noticeable lighting. Sometimes more resources are allocated, the launch is commented on and attempts are made to draw more public attention to it. But at times, on the contrary, the quality of work sags. When the manned Soyuz launched on July 28, the North-Western Cosmonautics Federation (popularization enthusiasts not included in the Roscosmos structure) organized a screening of the launch at the Starcon festival. But this particular time, the quality of the broadcast was one of the worst in the last few years, and this blurred the efforts of people. Alas, for uniformly high-quality coverage of the launch you have to go to NASA TV.
Unfortunately, it is not noticeable that serious resources are allocated to PR. It gets ridiculous - for more than fifty years, rockets of the R-7 family flew without on-board cameras. In 2014, the European Space Agency bought a couple of sets of cameras with its own money, installed them on purchased Russian rockets and received gorgeous picture separation of the side blocks of the first stage.
Roscosmos once installed cameras on a rocket launched from the Vostochny Cosmodrome in 2016, and that’s it. And this despite the fact that footage from the rocket in real time is shown not only by SpaceX, which is brilliant at PR, but even by the Chinese Space Agency.
And finally, Roscosmos was simply unlucky in some respects with PR. The most vigilant telescope, Spektr-R, which sees a thousand times better than Hubble, operates in the radio range, and its results look absolutely not spectacular, despite all their scientific uniqueness.
Image of galaxy OJ287 Good and bad
The space industry of any country has its strengths and weaknesses - some have achieved a lot in one, some have advantages in another, and everyone has their own problems.
Strengths:
- Russian cosmonautics has a developed applied component. One of two global navigation systems, geostationary and low-orbit communication systems, meteorological satellites and Earth remote sensing satellites, constellations of military satellites - we have it all. In terms of the number of operating satellites, Russia ranks third after the United States and China.
- Manned space exploration is definitely a strong point. The Soyuz spacecraft is reliable and efficient, and even after the start of flights of American manned spacecraft it will look good against their background. It may not be particularly comfortable, but it will work without problems until the new Federation ship appears. A huge amount of knowledge and technology has been developed on orbital stations and long-term human presence in space.
- The primacy in certain areas is maintained. For example, we have the best oxygen-kerosene engines for rockets and excellent electric propulsion (ion, plasma) engines for satellites. The Proton and Soyuz launch vehicles have extensive operating statistics and are constantly being modernized.
- Potentially breakthrough technologies are being developed - nuclear tug, detonation engines, hypersonic technologies (for now for military use, in the future they can be used for space), methane engines.
Weak sides:
- There are no own scientific devices outside the earth's orbit. Yes, they cannot yet bring direct profit, but they provide interesting scientific data and a lot of PR. Partially, this problem is compensated by participation in joint projects, when our instruments are installed on the devices of other space agencies - neutron detectors in the orbits of the Moon and Mars, and also on Curiosity - ours. The ExoMars project is a joint project with the European Space Agency.
- There are failures in some technological areas. Despite the fact that we are able to produce oxygen-hydrogen engines, they still do not move from laboratories to production rockets. And these engines are very profitable at the upper stages. There are problems with the element base for spacecraft.
- Our astronautics has moved from being a leader in the profitability of commercial launches to being a competitor. A modification of the Proton, the Proton Medium, is currently being developed, which should increase competitiveness in the launch services market. Theoretically, the Angara should have become cost-effective, but without regular launches it is impossible to say whether these calculations will be justified.
- There is no clear vision of the cosmonautics development plan for several years ahead. The sudden news that, for example, there will be no manned Angara on Vostochny, and that the cosmonauts will be carried from Baikonur by the not yet fully designed Soyuz-5 rocket (aka Phoenix/Sunkar) makes us expect new sudden changes.
Russian cosmonautics, alas, is not “ahead of the rest” - there are areas where they are ahead of us. At the same time, it is absolutely wrong to bury it - the work is going actively and quite well. In the coming years, Russia, even with inertial movement, will remain on the list of leading space states (USA, Russia, China) and agencies (European Space Agency, 22 countries).
Man has always had a craving for the unknown. Space - so close and so far - is infinity, in the study of which we have probably taken half a step. What awaits us tomorrow: an asteroid or terraforming of Mars? What will NASA do: send the first man to Mercury or send him back to the future? Follow the most interesting things happening beyond the stratosphere. When the Earth is explored entirely, a person will not get bored: he will have space left.
The superiority of the USSR over the United States in the space field before the historic landing of man on the Moon was undeniable. The USSR was the first to launch an artificial satellite into low-Earth orbit, send a man into space, and send a spacecraft to fly around the Moon, receiving images of the back side of the satellite for the first time. The Soviet spacecraft “-9” was also the first to make a soft landing on the Earth’s satellite. After all, it was Soviet cosmonaut Alexei Leonov who was the first in the world to perform a spacewalk from a spacecraft. It would seem that it was the Soviet people who should have been the first to land on the Moon. But that did not happen. Why did you lose the lunar race?
The American entrepreneur who founded Tesla and SpaceX is literally obsessed with his desire to move people to Mars. To send the first settlers to the Red Planet, he wants to use the Starship spacecraft, which is currently under development and undergoing testing. During a recent test, his Starhopper prototype was supposed to
The Bible points to the causes of the crisis and the way out of it
Summer... There is a certain calm in the life of the countries. Important decisions are rarely made or major projects begin at this time. Many are on vacation, and besides, the heat relaxes the body and brain, causing a desire to take a break from the autumn-winter-spring business marathon, preferably away from the place of work. Residents of Russia, not spoiled by a warm climate, are especially susceptible to the immobilizing effects of summer bliss.
This time of year is called the "low season". His influence is felt in all government departments, including space. But when observing the area of activity for which Roscosmos is responsible, sometimes you cannot get rid of the feeling that it is not within the walls of the high-rise building on Shchepkina Street where the space department is located, but in the cosmonautics itself that the “dead season” has begun.
The events of recent years in this industry, including the July fall of Proton, have strengthened the impression that this not very cheerful phrase in relation to astronautics is filled not with figurative, but with the most direct meaning and is not seasonal, but chronic.
Where does the skepticism come from?
At first glance, there is no reason for it. Yes, the Proton fell, but this has happened before. True, the last couple of years have been particularly fruitful for various cosmic failures. According to the calculations of Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, who oversees the space industry, this is the ninth accident since December 2010. Moreover, six of them occurred during the launch of spacecraft in the interests of government needs. And the most unpleasant thing is that all these failures happened not with experienced, but with standard products.
But didn’t the government react promptly to the fall of Proton, which overflowed the barrel of government patience? A commission was immediately formed to find out the causes of the accident, which quickly established the cause.
Proposals poured out of a cornucopia, including introducing photo and video recording of the process of assembling rocket and space technology so that experts could control the quality of this work. The main enterprises - developers, manufacturers of rocket and space technology products were instructed to carry out “an analysis of the completeness and sufficiency of the existing lists of critical elements and especially critical operations”, as well as “to develop and coordinate with the main research institutes action plans for additional checks and tests of critical elements of the existing backlog of rocket products -space technology".
Finally, the head of Roscosmos, Vladimir Popovkin, was reprimanded, although, as Rogozin emphasized, not for the July Proton accident, but for “improper performance of his duties.” (Popovkin was lucky that a year earlier the proposal of United Russia deputies to introduce the death penalty for those responsible for space accidents was not accepted.)
However, all these above steps are at the level of spraying water on plants planted in barren, rocky soil. For a short period of time, this measure can “green” them, but in the long term, the seedlings are doomed to extinction. What needs to be done for the survival of the “plants”, and what has actually been proposed for this?
What the Bible Says
On the wall of the Committee on Science, Space and Technology of the lower house of the US Congress is engraved the proverb 29:18 from the Holy Scriptures: Where there is no vision, the people perish (“People without vision perish”). And vision is, first of all, the ability to discern a spiritual, moral or intellectual guideline for development and move towards it. Simply put, set a goal and move towards achieving it.
Words from the Bible apply not only to people, but also to spheres of human activity. Only one of them has a chance of success if it has a specific goal, the pursuit of which stimulates the development of this activity. Astronautics is no exception. What goals does it have?
Guarantees Guaranteed
To answer this question, you need to look at the two main documents that determine the development of the Russian space industry. These are the state program “Russian Space Activities for 2013-2020” (approved in December 2012) and “Basic provisions of the FUNDAMENTALS of the state policy of the Russian Federation in the field of space activities until 2030 and further prospects” (approved in April 2013). Simply put, Russian space programs until 2020 and until 2030.
The main goal of the program until 2020 was declared to be “ensuring guaranteed access and the necessary presence of Russia in space.” “Voice of America” already wrote in the article “Who dooms Russia to lag behind in space” that this problem can be solved by launching into space devices like the first Soviet satellite, which entered orbit on October 4, 1957, or by sending ships like Gagarin’s into near-Earth space "East".
However, the program until 2020 emphasizes that this “guaranteed access” will go hand in hand with “preserving the leading position of the Russian Federation in manned flights.” This situation cannot cause anything but extreme amazement, because at present these “leading positions” are maintained with the help of the ships of the same name and launch vehicles (LV) of the Soyuz type.
The first will be in their sixth decade in four years, and the second in their seventh decade from the moment of birth. For 10 years now, although, of course, not with the same frequency as the Soyuz, the Chinese Shenzhou ships have been successfully flying. These vehicles are conceptually based on the three-seat Soyuz, but are more spacious, have greater versatility and power capacity than the Russian ship.
In a few years, the seven-seat American Dragon spacecraft will begin flying, and will soon be joined by several other manned spacecraft, one being developed by NASA and others by private US companies. Even India has started designing its own manned spacecraft.
As for Russian modules for the ISS, almost all of the cosmonauts who flew on this complex note that American, European and Japanese modules are distinguished by better design and manufacturing quality, as well as higher comfort for the crew. Therefore, Russia’s “leading” position in the field of manned space exploration can only arise in the fevered imagination of some “space” officials or jingoists.
“Easternization” of Russian space policy
The program until 2030 has one “radical” difference from the program until 2020. In it, in the list of interests, goals, priorities and tasks of Russia in the field of space activities, the first place is not just “guaranteed access of Russia to space,” but access precisely “from its territory.”
But excuse me, after all, Russia has “guaranteed access to space from its territory”! Moreover, even without Baikonur, from where Astana, despite periodically arising friction with Moscow due to the fall of “poisonous” Protons on Kazakh territory, does not intend to “drive out” Russia.
We are talking about Plesetsk. Is anyone restricting Russia’s activities at this spaceport, which is located on its territory and is one of the most actively used in the world? Most launches of military satellites on medium-class launch vehicles are carried out from Plesetsk.
Moreover, from there the new Angara launch vehicle, which is intended to replace the Proton, is scheduled to take its first flight. And there is also the Yasny (Dombarovsky) cosmodrome in the Orenburg region, from where light-class carriers and the Kapustin Yar missile range are launched.
Thus, setting the program until 2030 as the dominant goal to ensure “guaranteed” launches from Russian territory is the same as setting the Russian Olympic team as the main goal at the upcoming Winter Olympics... guaranteed to arrive in February 2014 at games in Sochi. But it was precisely towards achieving such an absurd goal that its leaders oriented the Russian cosmonautics.
However, let us not rush to accuse these leaders of irrationality. It is possible that here, on the contrary, they showed sophisticated diplomacy (or, more correctly, cunning?). Indeed, in every phrase “guaranteed access to space” the word “Eastern” appears in glowing letters. The provision of this guarantee is associated with the construction of this cosmodrome.
The problems of Russian cosmonautics are not that there is nowhere to launch from, but that there is nothing to launch except for the endlessly outdated technology created during the time of Chief Designer Sergei Korolev. But the Russian “space” leadership does not seem to care about this. I would like to believe that due to insufficient competence in matters of space activities, otherwise one would have to assume that Popovkin’s fight against corruption within the space industry ended in defeat for the general director of Roscosmos.
Construction is one of the most corrupt areas of activity in Russia. On April 8, 2013, Roscosmos sent to the government the concept of a new Federal Target Program for the Development of Cosmodromes for the period 2016-2025, requesting its implementation to cost more than 900 billion rubles, or $30 billion for 10 years. According to independent space expert Vadim Lukashevich, these 30 billion dollars will simply “be buried in the ground, mainly at the Vostochny Cosmodrome, the cost of which surprisingly increased by almost an order of magnitude (!) during the design and start of construction.”
Strategic plan or “binder”?
But the toothlessness and eclecticism of state programs until 2020 and until 2030, seasoned with “guarantee” sauce, cannot be explained by the corruption component alone. In the “Memorandum” prepared by employees of the space cluster of the Skolkovo Foundation, it was emphasized that in these documents “a clear, clear mission of Russia in space” was not formulated at all.
According to the authors of the “Memorandum”, the “State Program of the Russian Federation in the field of space activities until 2020” is a “binder” of federal target programs in the field of space activities, without defining the budgetary obligations of the state. The programs themselves, in fact, are more or less balanced collections of proposals from the parent enterprises of the rocket and space industry.”
As for the “Policy Framework... until 2030,” this document, as noted in the “Memorandum,” also contains “a complete set” of provisions that do not allow practical conclusions to be drawn on the basis of this document about the directions of domestic space activities. There are too many goals, they are not stated specifically.”
And why?
The answer lies on the surface. The highest executive and legislative authorities of Russia verbally acknowledge (as formulated in the state program until 2030) that “the state of space activity is one of the main factors determining the level of development and influence of Russia in the modern world, its status as a highly developed state in scientific and technological terms "
However, in reality, neither the president and the government, nor legislators see any connection between astronautics and the well-being of the state. Otherwise, they would have long ago set goals for the Russian space industry, the achievement of which would contribute to the rise of both the country’s science and technology, and its authority.
Let's be fair: in 2005, the Roscosmos budget was about 24 billion rubles, which, according to Lukashevich's calculations, was about 10 times more than in 2002. By 2008 it had grown to 40 billion, and since 2009 - to an amount of about 100 billion annually. Moreover, in 2012-2015. It is planned to invest 650 billion rubles in the Russian space industry.
The numbers, even adjusted for inflation, are impressive.
Care or payoff?
But one gets the impression that the Kremlin and Okhotny Ryad are simply buying off the cosmonautics in this way, because they have completely withdrawn from defining its goals and objectives, entrusting this to someone... who should achieve and solve these goals and objectives. That is, Roscosmos and its associated structures, which they accomplished in the form of state programs until 2020 and until 2030.
Now imagine the situation: the average student is asked to set his own math homework. With a high degree of probability, this will be closer to 2+2=, and not a proof of the Poincaré conjecture. In accordance with this principle, Roscosmos, according to Lukashevich, determines its scope of work outside the atmosphere.
In other words, the Federal Space Agency, together with its subordinate Central Research Institute of Mechanical Engineering (TsNIIMash), set goals for Russian cosmonautics that this agency can achieve without much headache. They are either “guaranteed” achievable, or tied to abstract “international cooperation”, which may not take shape, or take shape, but without Russia’s participation, or they are so far in the future that none of those who proposed these goals will bear personal responsibility neither for their achievement nor for the expenditure of funds that were allocated for this.
Where there is no interest, there is indifference
But the scope of work defined by Roscosmos itself, neither from a qualitative nor from a quantitative point of view, even approaches the scale of those scientific, technical and political tasks of Russia, the solution of which would allow the country to rise at least one step higher in the world ranking of states.
For this reason, the supreme power of Russia turns a blind eye to the confusion and vacillation in the country’s space plans, including the 10-year delay in the implementation of the already stillborn idea of repeating Apollo, the development of a new spacecraft for a non-existent carrier, the endless postponement of the first launch of Proton’s successor. - Angara launch vehicle, etc.
And the “ninth wave” in this “swing” was the recent decision of the Ministry of Finance to reduce funding for Roscosmos by 63 billion rubles in 2014-2016. The State Duma's reaction to this step became an additional explanation for the stagnation in Russian cosmonautics.
First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma for Industry Vladimir Gutenev saw this as a threat to disrupt the construction of Vostochny. The deputy chairman of the State Duma did not see the main threat to the Russian space industry in the form of a progressive scientific and technological lag not only from the United States and Europe, but even from such relative newcomers to space as China and Japan.
Correct words…
Speaking at the beginning of August of this year at a meeting of the commission to investigate the accident of the Proton-M launch vehicle, Rogozin said: “Every time when forming these space programs, you need to ask yourself a simple question: WHY? They always say that manned space exploration is needed. I say again: why, to whom else do we have to prove that we can keep our cosmonauts in orbit for as long as we want?”
“They proved it,” Rogozin continued. - What's next. For what? Why all these programs, which are noted both in the space program and in priority areas? I say again: ask yourself the question every time, this is a lot of money. They must be acquitted."
Bravo, Deputy Prime Minister! Finally, the authority in your person has demonstrated an understanding of the biblical wisdom discussed at the beginning of the article. Any activity that does not pursue specific goals, the pursuit of which contributes to its development, is doomed to degradation.
...and questionable decisions
However, having started “for health,” Rogozin ended “for peace.” In his opinion, in order to improve the state of affairs in the Russian cosmonautics, it is necessary... to change the structure of its management, in particular, by creating either the “United Aerospace Corporation” or the “United Rocket and Space Corporation” (from his lips both sounded another proposal).
Such ideas cause a bad déjà vu. Since 2006, the United Aircraft Corporation has existed in Russia, which to date has only been able to “give birth” to a regional “Superjet” cobbled together from foreign elements, the flight performance characteristics of which exactly fit into the “neither this nor that” formula.
But even without this déjà vu, Rogozin’s proposals cannot evoke anything other than a feeling of surprise. Imagine the situation: the engine of your car does not start, or does not “pull”. You call the “technician”, and the technicians who arrive, instead of repairing the engine, suddenly start delving into the control system.
The “engine” is those ideas, goals and objectives that should move astronautics forward. And “digging” in its management means attempts to create various kinds of “united corporations”.
Two main questions
They should form the basis of planning for space activities. This is WHY and WHERE? Moreover, exactly in this sequence.
If the answer to the first question is to continue to show off the Russians with the “world’s largest” number of space launches or the flights of the “world’s most reliable” Soyuz spacecraft,” then the answer to the question “where?” very simple. This, as before, is in low-Earth orbit.
It is quite possible to get there using the current archaic Russian space technology, created in the late 1950s - the first half of the 1960s, or, in extreme cases, come up with a “stump” from stations like “Mir” or the ISS in the form of a “free-flying, periodically visited module".
If the answer to the question “why?” - is to raise science and technology in general, as well as the authority and prestige of the Russian state both within the country and abroad, then the answer to the second question will be: “Only into “deep” space,” beyond the lunar orbit, with a focus on Mars".
Three conditions
They must be fulfilled by the state if it seriously considers astronautics as a means of solving the above-mentioned scientific, technical and political tasks that can bring Russia to a new stage of development.
First: set an ambitious and innovative goal in space, on the verge of modern technological capabilities of humanity and taking into account the technologies that will be created in the process of achieving it.
It doesn't sound so fantastic. Let us remember that at the end of the 1940s, the launch of an artificial Earth satellite and human flight into space were not just at the limit, but beyond the technological capabilities of not only the USSR, but also the entire world, which did not prevent the Soviet Union from deciding in 10-12 years both of these tasks.
Second: this goal must be in the foreseeable future (10-15 years) or the process of achieving it must be divided into segments not exceeding (or better yet shorter than) this period, so that movement towards this goal is carried out under strict and effective control from the highest executive and legislative authorities of Russia.
Third: to ensure the achievement of this goal with the necessary financial and administrative support, while simultaneously introducing strict accountability for the expenditure of allocated funds.
Only if these conditions are met will it be possible to say that the state is not simply buying off the astronautics by increasing its budget, but is giving it a “vision”, without which it, as follows from the Holy Scriptures, is doomed to destruction.
Original publication: golos-ameriki.ru
States' perceptions of military threats associated with space activities are expressed in two aspects: threats using space systems and threats against space systems. International discussions about this intensified in the 2000s in connection with the American program to create strategic missile defense systems and in connection with Chinese and American experiments to destroy their satellites in 2007 and 2008, respectively. However, the real economic, technical and political possibilities for the military use of space differ from the commonly used rhetorical figures.
Military space activities traditionally include space access, reconnaissance, communications, navigation and control of movements on land, sea, air and space, including missile attack warning systems.
Today, the most developed military space programs are those of the United States, Russia, and China.: 147, 84 and 58 out of 352 military vehicles in orbit, respectively. This is due to foreign policy interests that go far beyond their borders. European NATO members together have just over 30 military satellites, with the rest owned by other states.
In total, there are over 1,420 devices in orbit. And commercial communications and remote sensing devices can also be used by the military of those states in whose jurisdiction the owner companies are located.
Orbital maneuver
One of the most promising areas is the creation of satellites capable of maneuvering in low-Earth orbit. It is important to understand that with the development of ion engines, more and more advanced microsatellites are receiving this option. From 2005 to 2010, the United States launched several experimental vehicles with such capabilities. In 2014, Russia also launched a small satellite that moved independently in low-Earth orbit. Orbital maneuvering will make it possible to create flexible satellite systems: concentrate them over a conflict zone, modernize their components without replacing entire satellites, etc.
At the same time, international public opinion is strengthened in the idea that maneuvering satellites in conflict conditions can be used to destroy enemy satellites. There are no fundamental technical restrictions for such a step, but this idea for developed countries seems completely meaningless - the resources spent on a hypothetical result and its political consequences are not justified in any way.
In conditions when there are hundreds of satellites around the Earth, and the enemy is using dozens of them, including commercial satellites that do not belong to him, the destruction of several satellites cannot in any way affect the situation. Moreover, regardless of the political situation and at a sufficient level of accuracy, global navigation systems can be used to solve military problems GPS(USA), GLONASS(Russia) and the system created by the Europeans Galileo.
Consequently, a much more effective way to deprive the enemy of access to space systems would not be to destroy them, but to suppress communication channels between satellites and their receiving devices in the conflict zone. And it is often much more convenient to do this using ground-based systems, rather than through the deployment of special satellites.
Let us emphasize once again that the described argument works for countries that are responsible participants in the system of international relations, involved in world trade and possessing modern armed forces. But this argument does not work in relation to political regimes like North Korea, whose driving motives boil down to maintaining power by the ruling group and breaking the existing international rules of the game.
Such regimes themselves have little dependence on space systems, and therefore the destruction of satellites of other states can become a good opportunity for them for foreign policy blackmail. Given the cheaper platforms for creating small satellites and access to space, such a threat from outsiders international relations is worth keeping in mind. And this is where active measures to protect space systems, including maneuvering in space, may be required.
Control of near-Earth space
In recent years, space control systems for near-Earth space have acquired great importance, making it possible to obtain a complete picture of the space activities of different states, as well as convert this into increased security and foreign policy capital. The American side also takes the lead here.
The United States, in addition to a developed ground infrastructure located in different parts of the world and allowing control of the near-Earth orbit, has three satellite systems. Among them: the orbital space surveillance system ( Space Based Surveillance System, SBSS), space tracking and surveillance system ( Space Tracking and Surveillance System, STSS) and geosynchronous satellites of the space object detection system ( Geosynchronous Space Situational Awareness Program, GSSAP). At the same time, by 2020, the US Air Force plans to replace the only existing satellite SBSS, located in a sun-synchronous orbit, with three new small-sized geosynchronous devices.
System STSS consists of three satellites, two of which serve as technology demonstrators and are integrated with the maritime component of US missile defense. Accordingly, its main targets are ballistic missiles and warheads, which it can track throughout all phases of flight.
System GSSAP Today it is the newest - both of its satellites were launched in July 2014. Their peculiarity is the possibility of orbital maneuvering, which allows them to study from a relatively close distance the spacecraft of interest launched by other countries into geosynchronous orbits. Of course, in this case we are talking about situations where these same countries have not declared the designation of new space objects.
With the development of technology and industry, the emergence of similar systems is likely among other major participants in space exploration, and this does not require the deployment of large satellite constellations. However, such systems become necessary when the economic and political activities of a country and its key partners critically depend on the satellite systems of that country. Today this is relevant only for the United States and the European countries that depend on it for security.
Thus, there is no need yet for Russia to spend limited resources on creating its own satellite system for global control of outer space. It is enough to maintain orbital control over your territory using ground-based systems.
The idea of a military shuttle
The experimental vector of development of military activities in space since 2010 is demonstrated by the American unmanned reusable spacecraft X-37 B . This device is capable of staying in near-Earth space for many months, using engines to change its orbit, land at an airfield and, after the necessary maintenance, go into space again.
Another advantage X-37 B– the presence of a compartment where equipment is installed depending on the tasks performed by the ship. Thus, the spaceplane can play the role of a heavy reconnaissance and communications satellite, can act as a carrier of microsatellites and, hypothetically, an automatic repair ship.
However, currently X-37 B serves as a US Air Force scientific laboratory and technology demonstrator, and it is premature to talk about its routine use in the coming years. The talk that the spaceplane could become a carrier of precision weapons and/or a means of destroying satellites also seems unfounded. The arguments here are the same as in relation to maneuvering satellites - a discrepancy between the resources expended and the likely result.
Is “hypersound” necessary?
Attempts to create hypersonic aircraft have become another experimental area of military space activity. Such devices move in the upper layers of the airspace and along a suborbital trajectory and are controlled using space systems. In this case, the launch can be carried out using a light-class launch vehicle.
It is hypersonic propulsion that opens the way to the practical implementation of the concept of a rapid global non-nuclear strike ( Prompt Global Strike), formulated in the 2000s in the USA. The Americans tested devices twice over the Pacific Ocean in 2010–2011. HTV-2 , the purpose of which was to collect telemetry and other data on flights in the atmosphere at speeds up to 20 Mach. After the experiments, research work in this area has so far returned to the laboratory. In the field of hypersonic aircraft, which actually erase the boundary between the atmosphere and space, Russia and China today have research programs.
This also poses the problem that any current and future missile defense systems must counter all suborbital targets. And as far as one can judge, hypersonic technologies are of interest to modern Russia, first of all, in the context of increasing the capabilities of its strategic forces to overcome anti-missile systems.
As for China, this country conducted three flight experiments with hypersonic vehicles in 2014 Wu-14 , whose speed reached 10M. In the context of the creation of the Chinese global navigation system and Beijing's gradual expansion of its national constellation of satellites, this may mean a desire to acquire global non-nuclear strike capabilities in the coming decades. It is likely that Chinese technology will be inferior to American technology, but will be sufficient to solve military problems outside the PRC.
In this regard, it is necessary to take into account that the concept of a rapid global strike in the American, Chinese or any other version may not be realized. But the new knowledge and technologies acquired will definitely be used in the creation of new generations of aerospace technology for military and commercial purposes. This means that Russia needs to continue fundamental research in this area and, perhaps, without reference to the creation of specific systems.
And again missile defense
The American missile defense program is related to military space activities. Strategic missile defense systems can be classified as space activities, since they involve the interception of warheads flying along a suborbital or low-orbital trajectory. In addition, it carries out its tasks relying on satellites and ground-based space control devices.
At the same time, despite the experiment carried out in 2008 to destroy a satellite leaving orbit using an anti-missile system “ Aegis" (Aegis), it is incorrect to consider missile defense as a means of destroying satellites. A huge part of the satellites are beyond the reach of any anti-missile systems, and the negative consequences of destroying a satellite directly in orbit in 2007 were demonstrated by a Chinese experiment. Then, as a result of a hit by a specially launched ballistic missile, the satellite turned into a large cloud of space debris, which for several years posed a danger to other devices. And for international reputation, not to mention long-term foreign policy goals, such actions are only fraught with damage.
At the same time, as mentioned above, for states the destruction of single enemy satellites does not affect security in any way and does not create any military superiority in the event of a conflict. And given the fact that only economically and politically developed countries can afford anti-missile systems, the risk of combat rather than experimental use of these systems as anti-satellite weapons can be considered close to zero.
Space begins on earth
Military space activities also include improving and increasing the sustainability of ground-based space infrastructure. It is the ground infrastructure that supports the operation of satellites, and the satellites themselves are used for the benefit of consumers on land, at sea and in the air, and are connected to them through satellite navigation chips, phones, etc.
The most pressing threats here are the creation of electronic interference for such devices, for communication channels between the satellite and the Earth, and the destruction of ground stations, which was already mentioned in passing above. By and large, today and in the foreseeable future, the most effective and widespread methods of combating space systems will be those that have nothing to do with the concepts of “space weapons” or “anti-satellite weapons.”
In this context, the example of the American system is very indicative Raiders, designed to recognize external influences on communication channels with satellites. In the spring of 2013, the deployment of this system was completed, consisting of five mobile antennas in different parts of the world, including the Cape Canaveral spaceport, Hawaii, Japan, Germany (the location of another antenna was not specified).
This system is designed to protect communications via commercial satellites, as well as communications links for US troops abroad, which also often use commercial space systems. And it is clear that intercepting information passing through satellites, suppressing communication channels or striking ground-based space infrastructure is available to a much larger number of states and non-state players than the creation and use of their own satellites.
Moreover, the United States, as the country most dependent on space systems for its activities, is forced to spend the most resources defending its advantages. At the same time, all other players (with the exception of American allies), depending on the likelihood of an armed conflict with the United States, are or may be interested in reducing these advantages.
From here it becomes clear that the greatest probability is for “space battles” that take place exclusively on the earth’s surface. The ratio of resources spent, military and political costs and the predicted result here seems optimal.
In the context of all of the above, we can conclude: the current stage of development of military space activities has several main vectors. Firstly, this is an increase in the stability and flexibility of satellite systems - through orbital maneuvering technologies, automatic reusable vehicles, etc. Secondly, this is the development of space control systems. Thirdly, this is the development of electronic warfare systems and counteraction to such systems. Fourthly, this is research into hypersonic propulsion and the improvement of anti-missile technologies, which will make it possible in the future to combat vehicles moving at hypersonic speeds.
As you can see, there is still no talk of any version of Star Wars. However, there may be exceptional situations when the destruction of a spacecraft or large pieces of space debris may be deemed necessary due to their threat to other satellites, the orbital station, manned spacecraft or people on Earth. But it is precisely the exceptionality of this development of events that emphasizes the fact that the special creation of space weapons today is not a rational step. For such circumstances, equipment created or being created for other purposes will be used.
In light of all of the above, the following approach to its own military space program seems optimal for Russia:
- Focus on improving the reliability of our own satellite systems;
- Create conditions for the development of commercial space systems, which, if necessary, can be used by the military. This will reduce the costs of providing the armed forces with space systems;
- Make fundamental scientific research in the space field a priority, which in the future will improve Russian military security.
The value of military space parity itself leads to unjustified costs. Russia needs to proceed from the idea that the size of the military satellite constellation is directly proportional to the level of economic development of the country and the role of space systems in its economic activities.
The international project SIRIUS, within which an international group of participants simulated the work of a crew during a flight to the Moon for four months, ended on Wednesday in Moscow, reports a RIA Novosti correspondent from the Institute of Biomedical Problems (IMBP) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, where the experiment took place.
“The current experiment will make it possible to prepare future missions to the Moon,” said Sergei Savelyev, Roscosmos Deputy General Director for International Cooperation, at the experiment’s completion ceremony.
Six participants in the experiment left the ground-based experimental complex simulating a spaceship, in which they had been isolated from the outside world since March 19. They were met by relatives, scientists from Russia and other countries, as well as journalists.
Crew commander Evgeny Tarelkin reported to the head of the IBMP, Oleg Orlov, about the completion of the experiment, after which the participating girls were presented with flowers. One of them, Stefania Fedyay, called the experience of participating in the experiment “fantastic.”
“We entered here as one single organism, lived for four months the same way and are leaving together. And we have many joint plans for the future,” stated Tarelkin.
In total, six people took part in the experiment, which was carried out as part of the SIRIUS project: commander Evgeny Tarelkin, flight engineer Daria Zhidova, researchers Allen Mirkadyrov (USA), Anastasia Stepanova and Reinhold Povilaitis (USA), as well as doctor Stefania Fedyay.
The development of space tourism will allow more people to look at the Earth from the outside and become imbued with personal responsibility for the preservation of our planet. This assumption was made by the head of Amazon and Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos, in an interview with CBS, TASS reports.
"Space tourism will be launched with short 11-minute flights<...>“You will have the opportunity to see the outermost layer of the Earth’s atmosphere and understand how defenseless our planet really is,” Bezos said. - Everyone who has ever been in space says that it changed them somewhat - they realized how stunningly beautiful our planet is and how small and fragile it really is. This is something we cannot understand from below."
A life-size image of the Saturn V launch vehicle appeared Tuesday evening on the George Washington Monument in the US capital. The projection is dedicated to the 50th anniversary of the first landing of man on the Moon.
This summer, the Advanced Research Foundation (APF) is starting a project to create a return stage for the Krylo-SV launch vehicle; the first flights of the demonstrator are planned for 2021-2022. The press service of the fund reported this to TASS.
“The project to create a return stage for the Krylo-SV launch vehicle is being launched this summer. The technical specifications for the return stage have been prepared. We will start with the creation of several demonstrators of the return stage,” the foundation said.
Preparations continue for the Progress MS-12 cargo spacecraft for launch under the International Space Station program.
Today, July 16, 2019, a meeting of the technical management was held, at which the readiness of the Progress MS-12 spacecraft for refueling with fuel components and compressed gases was confirmed, and a decision was made to allow the product to be refueled.
In accordance with the decision, a combined propulsion system and a cargo ship refueling system are allowed to work at the refueling station. The filling station equipment is ready for operation, reports the press service of Roscosmos.
The American company SpaceX has announced the cause of the explosion on the Crew Dragon spacecraft that occurred during testing of the emergency rescue system at Cape Canaveral in the USA on April 20.
A statement on the SpaceX website said the explosion occurred approximately 0.1 seconds before the launch of the SuperDraco engines of the ship's emergency escape system. The explosion was caused by a failure of a check valve inside the ship's helium pressurization system.
As experts found out, a titanium element inside the valve failed due to the entry of an oxidizing agent (nitrogen tetroxide) under high pressure, which led to the valve igniting and a subsequent explosion. The oxidizer entered the pressurization system due to a leaking unit during the preparation of the ship for testing.
To prevent this situation from happening again in the future, SpaceX replaced the check valves with degradable membranes, and also took measures to prevent oxidizer from entering the pressurization system.
In accordance with the pre-launch preparation plan, on July 16, 2019, the crews of the upcoming long-term expedition to the ISS conducted the second “fitting” - a control inspection of the spacecraft in its launch configuration.
After the introductory briefing, the crews took turns boarding the ship, clarified the location of the stowage with the equipment delivered to the station, and tested the performance of various systems, including the communications system, in test mode.
After a check inspection of the ship, the crews headed to the assembly shop of the Progress RSC branch to inspect the Soyuz-FG launch vehicle, which will launch the Soyuz MS-13 manned spacecraft into orbit on July 20. Then, according to the pre-launch tradition, the crews visited the museum of the Baikonur Cosmodrome, left their autographs, and then visited the houses in which Yuri Alekseevich Gagarin and Sergei Pavlovich Korolev lived at Baikonur, reports the press service of RSC Energia.
The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) does not exclude the possibility that a manned flight to Mars will take place in 2033, despite the skepticism of a number of reputable experts about such a time frame, TASS reports. NASA Administrator James Bridenstine announced this on Monday at a telephone briefing for journalists.
"We are really working to prepare a comprehensive plan to carry out a mission to Mars, using technologies that will be tested on the Moon. Remember: the Moon is the test site, and Mars is the destination. I am absolutely not ready to rule out 2033," the chief said American space agency, commenting on a report published several months ago by one of the independent scientific centers of the US government.
This study stated that American plans to send humans to Mars by 2033 are not feasible. From the point of view of the authors of this report, prepared in February of this year by the Washington Institute for Science and Technology Policy at the request of NASA, such a mission will take place most likely in 2037.
“I think there were assumptions in that report that perhaps not everyone would agree with, including how long it would be necessary to remain on the surface of Mars,” Bridenstine said. “I think there are alternatives to [those assumptions].”
“I’m not saying that this is on the agenda. I’m saying that since we have accelerated the movement towards the Moon, [we need to think about] how this accelerates the movement towards Mars. We are looking at this, checking what is achievable,” he concluded. head of NASA.
The reason for the cancellation of India's long-awaited launch of its automatic lunar expedition Chandrayaan-2 was allegedly a fuel leak in the launch vehicle engine, the Times of India newspaper writes, citing several senior officials of the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO).
The crew of the new long-term expedition to the ISS will listen to Yuri Vizbor's songs before the flight. They will be included in the pre-launch playlist, cosmonaut Alexander Skvortsov said in an interview with the Cosmonaut Training Center (CPC) named after Yu. A. Gagarin.
“I really love Yuri Vizbor’s songs, they are kind and sincere. And this time, when we are waiting for the launch, they will also sound, including his “Dombay Waltz,” noted the cosmonaut, whose interview was published on the TsPK website.
Skvortsov also admitted that he had reduced his part of the playlist. “I shortened my part a little so that the guys listened to all their songs that they wanted,” said a crew member. The entire playlist will take about 40 minutes, TASS reports.
India has indefinitely postponed the launch of the Chandrayaan-2 mission to the moon 56 minutes before take-off from the spaceport on the island of Sriharikota in the Bay of Bengal. According to the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), the launch was postponed due to technical reasons. A new launch date will be announced later.
"A technical fault was detected in the launch vehicle 56 minutes before lift-off. As a serious precautionary measure, the launch of Chandrayaan-2 has been canceled for today. A revised launch date will be announced later," ISRO tweeted.
The European global navigation satellite system GNSS Galileo has been down for more than 60 hours. On the website of the system operator, the European Galileo Service Center, all satellites of the system are marked as inoperative. The reasons for the failure have not yet been reported.
The message about the cessation of operation of navigation systems is dated July 12 at 1:50 Central European Time (2:50 Moscow time).
"Until further notice, users may experience signal failures from all satellites in the system. This means that the signal may not be received or may not reach the minimum level required for system operation," the message says.
The European blog InsideGNSS, which monitors the state of the European satellite system, reported that the first notification of interruptions in its operation appeared on July 11. According to him, the failure may be due to a malfunction of the systems at the precision time center located in Italy. According to him, ground services are working around the clock to restore the functioning of the system, however, it is likely that the failure will not be eliminated before Monday, TASS reports.
The Japanese company Interstellar Technologies on Saturday decided to postpone the fourth launch of its own MOMO rocket, TASS reports. This was said in a statement.
The decision to postpone the launch was made due to unfavorable weather conditions. July 20 was chosen as the new launch date.
The staff changes at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) are due to dissatisfaction within the US administration with the lack of rapid progress in the implementation of Project Artemis, which envisages landing astronauts on the Moon by 2024. CNN reported this on Friday.
She outlined the contents of an intradepartmental circular in which NASA Director James Bridenstine informed his subordinates on Wednesday about the appointment of former astronaut Kenneth Bowersox as deputy administrator of the space agency for manned programs to replace William Gerstenmaier.
In turn, Gerstenmaier, who has been with the department for 42 years, is tasked with acting as assistant to Deputy Administrator James Morhard. The reshuffle comes hours after Gerstenmaier answered questions at a hearing before the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology.
The NASA director told the television network on Friday that it was “his sole” decision to remove Gerstenmaier from the lunar program. At the same time, Bridenstine, in an interview with Fox News on Thursday, spoke highly of the professional qualities of his subordinate, but made it clear that, due to his age, personnel changes are inevitable. CNN cites press reports that disappointment is growing in the White House with the lack of progress in the lunar program and dissatisfaction with the director of NASA. Tensions allegedly arose between Bridenstein and Gerstenmaier, TASS reports.
From launch pad No. 81 of the Baikonur Cosmodrome on July 13, 2019 at 15:30:57 Moscow time, the Proton-M launch vehicle with the DM-03 upper stage and the Spektr-RG space astrophysical observatory was successfully launched. The launch and flight went off without any problems, reports the press service of Roscosmos. This was the second launch of a launch vehicle of this type in 2019.
Two hours later, at 17:30 Moscow time, the spacecraft separated from the DM-03 upper stage and the orbital observatory began its 100-day flight to the vicinity of the libration point L2 of the Sun-Earth system, where it will explore the Universe in the X-ray range of the electromagnetic spectrum. radiation. All systems are working properly. Deployment of solar panels and heat shield was recorded. The spacecraft is taken under escort.
The controlled release of the Chinese space laboratory Tiangong-2 from orbit, according to the plan, will take place on July 19, after which it will enter the Earth's atmosphere. The Office of China's Manned Space Flight Program announced this on Saturday.
The State Commission for Flight Testing of Space Complexes for Social, Economic, Scientific and Commercial Purposes today, July 12, 2019, at 04:00 Moscow time, at its meeting at the Baikonur Cosmodrome, decided to switch to the reserve date (July 13, 2019) for the launch of a space rocket appointment of Proton-M with the Spektr-RG orbital observatory in connection with the need to obtain experimental confirmation from specialists of the Moscow manufacturer of the Proton-M launch vehicle of a technical solution to eliminate a defect identified at the Baikonur Cosmodrome to one of the launch vehicle systems.
The final decision on the possibility of launch will be made tomorrow morning based on the results of the technical management’s report to members of the State Commission, the press service of Roscosmos reports.
At the Baikonur Cosmodrome, preparations continue for the launch of the Soyuz MS-13 manned spacecraft to the International Space Station.
On July 10, 2019, specialists from the S.P. Korolev Rocket and Space Corporation Energia (part of the Roscosmos State Corporation) completed a set of technological operations for the docking of the Soyuz MS-13 spacecraft with the transition compartment of the launch vehicle.
The launch of a Vega launch vehicle from the Kourou spaceport with a UAE military satellite on board ended in failure after a trajectory shift, said Luce Fabregette, executive vice president of the French company Arianespace, RIA Novosti reports.
"As we saw, approximately two minutes after launch... there was a major aberration that resulted in the loss of the mission. On behalf of Arianespace, I would like to express my deepest apologies to our customers for the loss of cargo," Fabregette said.
The Japanese space probe Hayabusa2 has landed on the surface of the Ryugu asteroid, the Japan Aerospace Agency (JAXA) announced live from mission control.
The probe began descending from an altitude of 20 kilometers from the asteroid's surface on Wednesday. The rate of descent in the last hours before landing was ten centimeters per second. The complexity of the operation was that the device had to accurately hit the intended area with a radius of only seven meters, on which there are no large boulders that could damage the probe during landing. To correct the landing, the probe threw out a marker with a light signal two meters from the site.
50 seconds before landing, everyone in the hall stood up, looking at the screen with tension. At the moment of landing, the hall exploded with applause and enthusiastic shouts.
The landing site is 20 meters from the center of the artificial crater that the probe created on the surface of Ryugu in April. It became the first man-made crater on the surface of a cosmic body in the history of human space exploration. Now the probe must collect samples of rock that was thrown to the surface when the crater formed.
Scientists believe that it is the rock samples obtained from the depths of the asteroid, which largely retain the properties of matter from the time of the emergence of the Solar System, that will allow humanity to get closer to the solution to the formation of the Solar System and the emergence of life, RIA Novosti reports.
News 1 - 20 of 17649
Home | Prev. | 1 |
